May 29, 2024 -
Southwest Monsoon the main driver of the lifestyle of hundreds of thousands people living across the Indian Subcontinent is on the verge of entering the nation now at anytime. The monsoon this time is going before time in every locations then normal & leaping its step in almost every days. Currently its Arabian Sea Brunch is standing just south of cape comorin & covered nearly all of Srilanka while the Bay of Bengal brunch standing next to Mizoram because of the huge pulling system of Severe Cyclone Remal.
Conditions are highly favorable for onset of any brunch of the monsoon at Indian main land at anytime. Cyclone Remal still presence as a mid level circulation even after collapsing with the mighty Himalayan pulling out a lot of moisture from Bay of Bengal in the form of moisture strong southerlies which causing fairly widespread heavy to extremely heavy rain over Northeastern India
The Remnants of Remal will stay there & connected with the east - west trough axis over Northern India. This feature will move southwards & will extend up to Northeast Bay of Bengal forming a Circulation or a Low Pressure as guided by various Numerical Weather Prediction models. This low will further active the current monsoon surge over Bay, causing vigorous rainfall over Northeast India & will trigger adverse weather conditions setting the monsoon.
While in South another broad Cyclonic circulation over Cape comorin tilting southwards with height in south, forming a shear zone along 8° North Latitude. This feature will be pushed northwards in the upcoming days causing heavy to extremely heavy rain over Southern tip of India. Presence of Western Ghats at Kerala will trigger the onset further by causing orographic rainfall.
Features like MJO, Equatorial Rossby Wave, Kelvin Wave all are presence & favoring the onset. The onset will be very vigorous at where ever it touches first & in the next step it it will have a big leap possibly covering much of the Eastern India before or 2-3 days prior of the normal date of monsoon arrival. Continuous rainfall activities expected for at least a week in this parts causing flooding situations in remote areas with isolated areas getting flash flooding & landslide, especially the hilla of Northeast India & the Ghats of Southern India. Monsoon expected to arrive at the same time over Kolkata & Mumbai.
Heavy rains are already occurring over Northeast India with the Gangetic Delta facing strong Southerlies of 45-55 Kph, causing the heat to remain in a comfortable range although the moisture index causing the heat index to rise near 50-60°C with more than 70°C at some places. Record breaking heatwave spell over Northwest India will help to intensify the heat low over Rajasthan causing the Arabian brunch of Monsoon too advance further north. The start phase of monsoon is vigorous, so people are advised to remain on guard & stay safe from intense lightning activities
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