Heavy Rains likely in the North Eastern States ; Wet Weekend ahead
May 10, 2024
Conditions right now -
North East India is considered as the Wettest Place in the entire Southern Asia with thick cloud cover, flooding rain in the Assam and Surma valley, blinding heavy to extremely heavy rains, Strong gusty winds, intense hailstorm activities etc. The Southern parts of north east India particularly Assam valley, Shillong Plateau, Mizoram etc remain in the main threat zone as humid Southerlies directly strike the region without any obstacles. People in North East India are used to this & has become a part of their daily lifestyle as seen in their clothing or culture or wooden or bamboo made house.
However during the past 2-3 days, North East India especially the Southern states saw a break in rainfall coverage and intensity as forecasted with the sky remaining mostly partly cloudy with absence of any significant stormy conditions or the so called Bordoisila. The absence of the summer storms also is building up localized heat low along with the air temperature, particularly over Tripura. However the conditions are likely to change as the Cyclonic circulation over North East Bangladesh and Assam has been connected by a mid latitude westerly trough extending up to the head bay of bengal. This mid latitude trough will cause moisture feeding to the Cyclonic circulation over Assam. This moisture laden winds will directly strike out the Southern cliffs of the Shillong plateau and Mizo hills causing formation of a wind convergence zone & formation of a trough low which will spawn genesis of Strong Cumulonimbus cloud cell, that will result Bordoisila over Assam and North Eastern states. The humid southerlies along with the trough line will also cause formation of Squall line or Bow echo over Eastern India which will move eastward and affect the states of North East India later with intense rain and winds.
What to expect -
In the next 2-3 Days the Southern parts of North East India, like Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura will see widespread thundershower activities with gusty winds of 30-40 Kph. These activities will continuously increase till Sunday, however it won't be simultaneous, rather rotational. On the other hand the northern parts like Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya will see a bit of more intense activities like heavy rains, Severe Thundershowers or Bordoisila with gusty winds of 40-50 Kph or above that, hailstorm activities, lightning strikes. In Meghalaya Garo & Khasi hills, particularly places like Tura, Dawki, Jowai, Mawsynram, Mawkyrwat and Cherrapunji will see heavy to very heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall will also cause flooding conditions in the Surma & Kachar region of Assam including cities like Haflong. In Hills like Arunachal pradesh intense short spell of thundershower activities could cause flash flooding, disruption of roads and communications too while in plains like Pasighat or Kaziranga the flood water will remain stand still for several days causing water logging situations.
Weather activities in this region will see slightly better conditions at the beginning of the next week as the mid level westerly trough will move out north eastward cutting the moisture supply to the north eastern states.
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