Cyclone threat likely over Bay of Bengal. Disturbance likely to develop this month end near Andaman

May 10, 2024 -

North Indian Ocean, One of the prominent tropical cyclone basin around the world, specifically the Bay of Bengal is known for producing deadliest & destructive tropical cyclones around the world. Constant warm sea surface temperature over Bay of Bengal and Dense population on the eastern coast of India & and Gangetic Delta is the main reason for it. Despite the basin remains favourable for Cyclone formation always, it has 2 prominent peaks - That is pre monsoon from March to June and another is Post monsoon ; from September to December. Like everything Cyclone has a good and bad effect too. In one hand it cause death and destruction while on the other hand it circulates the temperature and rainfall from the equatorial region to the tropical & temparate zone along with controlling the monsoon dynamics. 

In the past few years Bay of Bengal remains hyper active for forming Cyclones in the month of May always. In the last 5 years - 3 Category 5 Cyclones namely Fani, Amphan & Mocha has formed & out of that 2 affected Indian coast causing immense destruction. 

What's going to happen this month? 

However this year, its already May 10th and there's no news of any tropical development on the news yet. So will we see any development this month? 

Possible Tropical Development -

Though we can't say for sure as weather patterns are destined to change always & for Cyclone it follows more changes, but there's signs of a Tropical Development likely over Southeast Bay of Bengal after May 17th.

Tropical Development depends on some certain conditions & if those conditions aligns then the chance of development opens up. 

Conditions likely occur -

If we see about the current conditions on Bay, the Sea surface temperature is piping hot over Southeast Bay, exceeding 32°C with Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential value exceeding 150 Kj/cm² . MJO is currently over phase 4 with amplitude less than 2 ; It will move over phase 3 with amplitude greater than 2 favouring an extreme favourable conditions for convective development over Bay of Bengal. In addition this a Cross equatorial surge also expected to arrive over Southern Bay of Bengal along with the support of Equatorial Rossby Wave & Kelvin wave. The Upper air conditions such as shear is also expected to remain low. All this conditions will increase the lower level vorticity over South east Bay. 

During the last half of the May cyclone which forms over Bay tends to move towards north northwest threatening Eastern coast of India. Multi model ensembles along with the world's prominent models like ECMWF & GFS & long range models like CFS also shows signs for development of a Tropical disturbance over southeast Bay & then movement towards India. 

The intensity & possible tracks are yet to be watched but with the signs available now we're expecting likely development of a disturbance over Southeast Bay and possible movement towards Eastern India. Formation of this would also cause advancement of the Southwest monsoon over Andaman & Nicobar Islands around May 17th to 23rd on time. We will have a close eye on the possible Tropical Development over Bay of Bengal after Mid may. Stay tuned with Meteora Weather Service for the latest news about Cyclones and Weather updates.