Jun 26, 2024 -
The country is facing a nearly opposite monsoonal scenario with the whole country rainfall amount till now is standing at -18.8 as of today, just near to be called deficit (-19% to 19% is considered as normal). Except Southern India every other regions of India facing rain deficit with the highest amount over Northwest India nearly -55%. Though monsoon expected to strengthen a bit but that won't make out the large deficiency the nation is standing currently. The arrival of the monsoon at the same time over Southern tip of India & Northeast India was pretty promising but after that it completely went in its dormant phase.
The reason is surprising as founded by our experts.
The reason behind the so called monsoon season & its rainfall is completely depends on the formation of monsoonal low mainly over Bay of Bengal. On average one monsoonal low forms each week of the monsoon as the monsoon trough comes over Bay head. But this year the northern limit of Monsoon is still lingering over the coast of East Medinipur of Gangetic West Bengal. The main driven force that helps the monsoon to reach deep in the country - Formation of a monsoonal low is absence this year & the last time it occurred was in 2012. As a result 2012 Southwest monsoon saw large deficiency across the nation except Northeast India. This year too except the Assam valley & Southern India other places recorded nearly no normal rainfall value. The reason behind the normal amounts of rainfall is presence of active east west trough & Arabian sea monsoon surge. But Bay of Bengal is completely calm with scattered clouds here & there.
Other secondary reasons were -
Western Disturbance -
In northern India absence of any significant western disturbance, prolonged heatwave made it more worse.
El Nino -
The recent El Nino which reached near Super El Nino status made the country dry & warm with prolonged heatwave spell & lack of localized rainfall activities, mainly over Northwest & Central India. Although the ENSO value has turned down to neutral the aftermath remains for a month or two, especially during a powerful Nino phase.
Absence or presence of weak off shore trough -
Another main reason for Indian monsoon activities is presence of an off shore trough mainly over Western Coasts. Mumbai is used to get widespread tripple digit rainfall activities during the onset of of monsoon there. This year the onset was there occurred with cloud burst like events (Powai) too but the spread was in isolated areas. Its due to the weak & only brief presence of the monsoon trough & somali jet.
MJO -
MJO which strengthens the monsoon cloud & helps to form monsoonal low were also absence throughout the month after cyclone remal
In conclusion this unfavorable conditions in the month of June will mark a significant stigma in the monsoon performance & the economy over the country & its people.
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