Monsoon advanced over Southeast Rajasthan, likely to cover up Northern India in the coming days -

Jun 25, 2024 -

The performance of the Southwest monsoon remained nearly weak over India throughout the month. Till now the national rainfall deficit is at -18.3% from its normal value, barely falling under the normal category (-19 to 19 %). Moreover the prime regions of Monsoon in India like East & Northeast India are also having deficit of -16% with Assam & Meghalaya only saw above normal rainfall. Northwest & Central India witnessed deficit rainfall of -56% & -22%. In southern India conditions are still somewhat better with 10% surplus in rainfall activities then normal but the entire west coast remained deficit from normal. The main reason for it is absence of a monsoonal low from Bay of Bengal. Currently a Cyclonic circulation is over North central Bay of Bengal extending up to mid level, however that's also unlikely to organize & move east towards Eastern India during next 1-2 days joining with the east west trough across central India. Another broad circulation over Northeast Arabian sea & adjoining Southwest India & Southeast Pakistan also fueling the monsoon there as it covered the entire Kathiawar Peninsula, most parts of Gujarat & southeast parts of Rajasthan. In the coming days the monsoon is expected to advance further covering the remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar & Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, Northern parts of Punjab & Haryana, making a big leap across the highlands of the central & eastern India & over the foothills of Himalaya. This spell will cause entire India covered under deep monsoon convective clouds with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activities with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall nearly all states of the country. Some isolated extremely heavy rainfall could also occur in the next 4-5 days over the foothills of Central Himalaya due to extra moisture incursion. While In the end of the month parts of Northwest India like Rajasthan, Harayana, Punjab, Western Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh & our Nation Capital Delhi may witness isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall marking the advancement of Southwest monsoon on time there. Thie wet spell of monsoon can actually revive the conditions back to life to the areas facing drought. In conclusion in the next few days monsoon expected to come back in its original form & make a big leap towards Northern India like the previous years. This type of spell could also cause water logging or flood issues in the urban areas like Northeast India or on the megacities but those would be negligible as conditions won't be too adverse. However preparation should be needed in the places like Western coast of India, Northeast India & Northwest India including Delhi in the upcoming days. This much needed rainfall would also help to revive the economy somewhat by improving the agricultural conditions across the country as the Industry sector of India is basically agricultural based

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