The much awaited rain maker - 3rd monsoonal low of this season formed this morning over head bay under the influence of the remnant circulation of the Depression BOB 02 which formed over Bay of Bengal & made landfall over Odisha one week ago. Interestingly the low following a rather unusual track over & over, instead of moving northwestwards towards central India, its making loop over Eastern India since the past 2 days. This type of track is rare & can be influenced by the upper layer anticyclone which separates Tropical Easterly Jet & Sub Tropical Westerly Jet this time. The system expected to cross the coast of Gangetic West Bengal slowly & will move towards Jharkhand. After that the track of the system remains uncertain, whether it will move towards central India or will move back to sea once again. The system made its lowest pressure today under favorable conditions with pressure falling near 985 millibar which is unusual for a monsoonal low as there pressure mostly remains around or above 990 millibar. It mainly caused passing showers over Gangetic West Bengal however coastal parts of Gangetic West Bengal such as Sagardip, Interior & Western Parts of Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh recorded isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall activities with coastal areas recording winds in order of 30-40 kph. In deep sea winds peaked around 50-60 kph. The low will continue to cause moderate to heavy with isolated very heavy rainfall over Eastern India while due to its influence active monsoon conditions will brush over the coast of Western India, causing isolated extremely heavy rainfall over the hill tops of Western Ghats. Rain is expected to cease slowly in the region before peaking up once again in the end of the month as another system could form over Northeast Bay of Bengal. This back to back system along with the normal position of monsoon trough will help to reduce the deficiency over Eastern India. The City of Joy Kolkata recorded a nearly normal rainfall with just 14% deficiency which is expected to reduce more in the coming days of July. Other district like Hooghly, Burdwan, Bankura, Purulia also reached near normal status while deficiency in Nadia also dropped. August could also see a similar conditions unlike Jun & July while above normal rainfall could occur over Northwest & Western India due to the normal position of monsoon trough. Rainfall will also pick up over Northeast India. Unlike Jun & July, August might see a near normal conditions dur to the normal position of monsoon trough which will help to spawn the piller of monsoon, monsoonal low with a near normal track of them towards Central & Northwest India. However how the forecast goes on is yet to see. Due to this both Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal will remain rough with windy conditions in Arabian sea while Stormy conditions over Bay of Bengal.
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