Oct 15,2024 -
The Northeast Monsoon has advanced over the Coromandal coast almost 5 days prior to its official onset date due to the shift of monsoon trough in the extreme Southern Bay from the beginning of October favoring a quick withdrawal of SW monsoon by the official agency despite the presence of enough moisture in atmosphere which is causing sporadic showers everyday. The trough over Southern Bay & High pressure ridge over Gangetic Plains & Central India making a perfect environment to change the wind pattern from Southwest to Northeast. Furthermore back to back circulation & currently active disturbance 96B designated by JTWC which is on the verge of becoming a Depression causing widespread rainshower activities over Coromandal coast for the past few days with some extremely heavy rain. The system has a vertical extension upto mid level allowing the NE monsoon winds not only to penetrate the lower levels but mid levels too. Talking about Tropical Low 96B which is very likely to become a Depression is targeting one of the 4 megacities of India - Chennai. The system won't be able to intensity much due to its short window & thus this week system will greatly impacted by the NE Monsoon allowing poleward outflow which will cause extremely heavy rainfall from Chennai to the entire Rayalaseema causing flash & urban flooding in many areas. Chennai & surrounding areas will see the main heavy spell between October 16-17 disturbing the normal lifestyle of there greatly, while making inconvenience for the road, rail & air traffic services. Weather expected to see improvement from October 19th with reduction in rainfall activities as the system will weaken gradually & move out from South India. Government & local authorities needs to pull enough preparations before any mishaps would occur.
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