Neutral El Niño & IOD: What to Expect for India’s Summer in 2025?

 Neutral El Niño & IOD: What to Expect for India’s Summer in 2025?

As we step into 2025, a significant shift in global climate patterns is shaping up. Both El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are in a neutral phase, meaning neither phenomenon is expected to exert a strong influence on weather conditions. This neutrality raises critical questions about what India can expect during the upcoming summer season. Will we experience an extreme heatwave, or will temperatures remain closer to normal? Let’s dive into the possible impacts.

Understanding the Neutral Phase of El Niño & IOD

• El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which often disrupts weather patterns worldwide. In India, El Niño is typically associated with weaker monsoons and higher summer temperatures.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon that impacts rainfall and temperature distribution over the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD can enhance monsoon rains, whereas a negative IOD can weaken them.
• With both factors in a neutral phase, global climatic influences on India’s summer will be relatively subdued, and local factors will play a bigger role.

What Can We Expect in the 2025 Summer?

1. Average to Above-Normal Temperatures

While El Niño neutral conditions reduce the risk of extreme temperature spikes linked to Pacific warming, long-term warming trends due to climate change and regional atmospheric factors may still lead to above-normal temperatures in several parts of India.

• Northern and Central India (Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra) could see temperatures rising above 42-45°C.
• Southern India (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh) may witness near-normal temperatures but could experience high humidity, making conditions feel harsher.
• Coastal regions might face uncomfortable conditions due to increased moisture levels, leading to high heat index values.

2. Heatwave Frequency and Intensity

With neutral conditions, India’s heatwave intensity and frequency will be primarily driven by regional wind patterns, soil moisture levels, and urban heat effects rather than external climate oscillations. April to June will be crucial, with states like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra likely facing multiple heatwave days.

3. Impact on Agriculture and Water Availability

• Agriculture: Farmers can expect adequate pre-monsoon rainfall, which may help mitigate some heat stress on crops. However, high temperatures could still impact wheat and pulses in northern India if the heat arrives earlier than expected.
• Water Scarcity: Reservoir levels across central and western India should be closely monitored. If pre-monsoon showers are limited, water shortages may intensify in some regions.

4. Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorms and Rainfall

Neutral conditions mean the pre-monsoon season (March-May) will be dictated by localized weather systems.

• Eastern and Northeastern India (Bihar, West Bengal, Assam) may see more Nor’westers (Kalbaisakhi storms) bringing thunderstorms and strong winds.
• Western India (Rajasthan, Gujarat) could experience isolated dust storms, a common phenomenon during this period.

Final Thoughts: Should We Brace for an Extreme Summer?

While the absence of El Niño and IOD anomalies suggests fewer large-scale disruptions, India’s summer will still be hot, potentially above normal in many regions. The ongoing climate change effects will continue to drive heat extremes, urban heat islands, and water stress. However, with timely heatwave warnings and pre-monsoon rainfall, India might escape the worst-case scenarios.

Stay tuned for detailed summer forecasts and regional updates as the season unfolds!