🌧️ Heavy Rain for South India, Cold Wave and Fog for Central and Northern Regions


🌧️ Heavy Rain for South India, Cold Wave and Fog for Central and Northern Regions

India’s weather this week presents a strong north-south contrast — while the southern states brace for another spell of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, parts of central and northern India are expected to experience a sharp drop in temperatures, leading to cold wave to severe cold wave conditions and fog formation in certain areas.

đŸŒĻ️ Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms in Southern States

The latest forecast indicates light to moderate rain or thunderstorms at many places with isolated heavy rainfall likely over:

  • Tamil Nadu on 17th and 18th November,

  • Kerala & Mahe on 13th November, and

  • Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema on 17th and 18th November.

In addition, thunderstorms with lightning are expected to affect:

  • Tamil Nadu on 17th November,

  • Kerala & Mahe on 13th and 14th November, and

  • Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka on 17th and 18th November.

This rain activity is associated with multiple upper air cyclonic circulations persisting across the southern and coastal regions, bringing in significant moisture from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

🌀 Meteorological Setup Behind the Weather Changes

As of 0530 hours IST, three upper air cyclonic circulations are influencing India’s weather pattern:

  • One over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level, continues to feed moisture into southern states.

  • Another circulation lies over north Haryana and its neighborhood, at 3.1 km above mean sea level, contributing to cooler winds and temperature drops over north and central India.

  • A third circulation persists over northeast Assam, extending up to 0.9 km above mean sea level, maintaining localized cloudiness and slight temperature moderation in the region.

đŸĨļ Cold Wave and Cold Day Conditions Over Central India

The forecast highlights a significant cold spell developing over central India:

  • Cold wave to severe cold wave conditions are very likely at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh and at a few locations in Chhattisgarh on 13th November.

  • Cold wave conditions are expected in isolated pockets of East Rajasthan and East Madhya Pradesh from 13th to 15th November.

  • Additionally, cold day conditions are likely to prevail in parts of East Madhya Pradesh on 13th November.

These conditions indicate a strong dip in night temperatures, likely 3°C to 6°C below normal, particularly over the central plains and adjoining northern states.

đŸŒĢ️ Fog and Temperature Outlook for the Northeast

The Northeast region is likely to experience shallow to moderate fog during the next 5 days, especially in Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh.
A fall of 2–3°C in minimum temperatures is also forecast for the next 4–5 days, with no major change thereafter.

This cooling trend, combined with calm winds and clear skies, will favor early-morning fog formation across the northeastern valleys.

🌡️ Pan-India Temperature Trend

Across northwest, west, central, and east India, no large change in minimum temperatures is expected over the next 6–7 days. However, temperatures will remain below normal in central India, marking an early phase of winter-like conditions.

📅 Weather Outlook for Next 3 Days

  • Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Islands, with a few spells of heavy rain possible in southern coastal districts.

  • Isolated to scattered rainfall may occur over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, and South Interior Karnataka, accompanied by occasional thunderstorms.

  • The rest of India will stay mostly dry and cold, under the influence of continental air masses.

đŸ§Ŗ Advisories and Precautions

  • Residents in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan should prepare for cold mornings and nights, ensuring adequate warm clothing and protection for vulnerable groups.

  • Farmers are advised to use mulching and light irrigation in cold-prone areas to protect crops and seedlings.

  • In southern states, precautions against lightning, slippery roads, and localized flooding are recommended.

  • Drivers in the Northeast should exercise caution during early morning and late-night hours due to reduced visibility from fog.

🗓️ Summary

Region Weather Condition Period
Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Islands Rain, thunderstorm, isolated heavy showers 13th–18th Nov
West & East Madhya Pradesh Cold wave to severe cold wave 13th–15th Nov
East Madhya Pradesh Cold day conditions 13th Nov
Northeast India Shallow to moderate fog Next 5 days
Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh) 3–6°C below normal temperatures Next 5 days

🌤️ Outlook

India’s mid-November weather is set to showcase a classic seasonal transition — monsoon remnants over the South bringing rain and thunderstorms, while northern and central regions slip steadily into winter mode with cold winds, fog, and chilly mornings ahead.

Issued by: Meteora Weather Service (MWS)
Date: 13th November 2025

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