After 7 Years! Simultaneous Advancement of the Southwest Monsoon on both corner of the Country

May 31st, 2024 -

Southwest Monsoon made an amazing record by setting its onset over both sides of the country at the same time. The Monsoon current as we forecasted reached on May 30th. This type of onset for both Bay of Bengal & Arabian sea brunch at the same time is rare & the last time it occurred on 2017. Another interesting fact is that like that year  monsoon made its onset over Indian mainland at the similar time of the year. The Southwest Monsoon was advancing in every region this year prior to its actual time. The main difference between 2017 & this year monsoon is that in 2017 the Southwest monsoon remained stagnant over Southern & Northeast India for a long time. But this time it continued to advance nearly every day & making big jumps every day. On May 30 in 1 jump it covered the entire Northeast India & then on the next day it covered the northern parts of Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. Widespread rainstorm activities continuing over those region, especially  over Northeast India, with Southern Meghalaya receiving heavy to extremely heavy rain. Sohra recorded 219 mm of extremely heavy rain on May 31st. 
Conditions are further favorable of advancement of the Southwest monsoon over Southern Karnataka & adjoining Tamilnadu in a day Or two. Pre monsoon regular thunderstorm over Eastern India with isolated heavy to very heavy rains clearing way for the further advancement of the Southwest monsoon over Eastern India. The fast it cover the entirely Indian Sub continent the fast the ongoing deadly heat wave spell will end which killed almost 200 people till now with temperature clocking over or near 50°C in the vast region of Northern & Central India. 

However despite the environment for the advancement of monsoon deep into the country strong weather systems needed. The Western brunch mostly get powered by a off shore trough created by the instability over Western Ghats due to the heat difference while the Bay brunch get activated when a system forms over Northeast Bay of Bengal. The Bay of Bengal brunch has a greater role to give relief over the entire parts of the country rather than the Arabian sea brunch as it goes through the Great Indo Gangetic Plains without any obstacles. Fortunately we expect a low or circulation likely to form over the East Central & Adjoining Northeast Bay of Bengal as the current east west trough located over the foothills of himalaya will fall over Bay of Bengal leading to intense thunderstorm activities throughout trough axis. The low will follow up the trough line & head Northwest activating the monsoon surge over Bay. The low even might strengthen on its way to Eastern India & adjoining Bangladesh from the current favorable conditions over the head bay such as warm SST & TCHP but that's yet to watched. But it'll help for advancement of the monsoon in Eastern India. 

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Monsoon can step anytime now, Know the Date & Time when it will reach on your City?


May 29, 2024 -
Southwest Monsoon the main driver of the lifestyle of hundreds of thousands people living across the Indian Subcontinent is on the verge of entering the nation now at anytime. The monsoon this time is going before time in every locations then normal & leaping its step in almost every days. Currently its Arabian Sea Brunch is standing just south of cape comorin & covered nearly all of Srilanka while the Bay of Bengal brunch standing next to Mizoram because of the huge pulling system of Severe Cyclone Remal. 

Conditions are highly favorable for onset of any brunch of the monsoon at Indian main land at anytime. Cyclone Remal still presence as a mid level circulation even after collapsing with the mighty Himalayan pulling out a lot of moisture from Bay of Bengal in the form of moisture strong southerlies which causing fairly widespread heavy to extremely heavy rain over Northeastern India
The Remnants of Remal will stay there & connected with the east - west trough axis over Northern India. This feature will move southwards & will extend up to Northeast Bay of Bengal forming a Circulation or a Low Pressure as guided by various Numerical Weather Prediction models. This low will further active the current monsoon surge over Bay, causing vigorous rainfall over Northeast India & will trigger adverse weather conditions setting the monsoon. 
While in South another broad Cyclonic circulation over Cape comorin tilting southwards with height in south, forming a shear zone along 8° North Latitude. This feature will be pushed northwards in the upcoming days causing heavy to extremely heavy rain over Southern tip of India. Presence of Western Ghats at Kerala will trigger the onset further by causing orographic rainfall. 


Features like MJO, Equatorial Rossby Wave, Kelvin Wave all are presence & favoring the onset. The onset will be very vigorous at where ever it touches first & in the next step it it will have a big leap possibly covering much of the Eastern India before or 2-3 days prior of the normal date of monsoon arrival. Continuous rainfall activities expected for at least a week in this parts causing flooding situations in remote areas with isolated areas getting flash flooding & landslide, especially the hilla of Northeast India & the Ghats of Southern India. Monsoon expected to arrive at the same time over Kolkata & Mumbai. 

Heavy rains are already occurring over Northeast India with the Gangetic Delta facing strong Southerlies of 45-55 Kph, causing the heat to remain in a comfortable range although the moisture index causing the heat index to rise near 50-60°C with more than 70°C at some places. Record breaking heatwave spell over Northwest India will help to intensify the heat low over Rajasthan causing the Arabian brunch of Monsoon too advance further north. The start phase of monsoon is vigorous, so people are advised to remain on guard & stay safe from intense lightning activities

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Extreme Heat killed 33 People Over Rajasthan, Relief showers awaiting in the Weekend

May 28, 2024 -
The strongest heat wave spell continues to persist over Northwest India as forecasted causing IMD to issue Red alerts on all the states of Northern & Central India from the last several days. Border areas of Rajasthan in India & Sindh in Pakistan are experiencing extreme temperatures with some remote places temperature recording up to 53°C while in majority parts like Phalodi, Barmer, Jaisalmer, Bikaner experiencing temperature near 50° Celsius. The conditions likely to be remain similar till weekend & expect little relief there after. 

The reason for this long spell as we told, due to absence of any active western disturbance & the typical climatology during this time causing formation of the intense heat low over Rajasthan. Jacocabad in Pakistan touched 52°C while surrounding areas registered 53°C. Due to the northwesterly wind pattern the heatwave spell expending it's wings even up to Central & Eastern India. 
Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh recorded 49°C temperature today while Capital Delhi recorded 48.8°C. Niwari in Madhya Pradesh was also pretty close to that with 48.7°C temperature while the orange city, Nagpur in Vidarbh recorded 45.6°C. Kandla in Gujarat recorded 45.3°C while Bhatinda in Punjab recorded 48.4°C. Churu recorded 50.5°C in Rajasthan while Phalodi 49.4°C.

Heat wave conditions also touched foothills of the Western Himalaya as Una in Himachal Pradesh recorded 44°C while Kathua in Jammu & Kashmir recorded 47.1°C. The Abnormal heat caused 46.5°C temperature in Gaya, Bihar while 47.5°C in Daltongunj of Jharkhand too. Nearby Sambalpur in Odisha also saw 44-45°C temperature. This abnormal heat caused disruption in electricity service by blasting transformers, wind meal in Rajasthan while killing nearly 33 people. 

However temperature likely to see a significant reduce from the start of next month as a new western disturbance will approach the region triggering the heat low over Rajasthan that will drag the moisture through Gujarat & SE Rajasthan increasing the moisture content over the atmosphere there. 
This will cause development of 
strong thunder shower activities over the region with strong gale force dusty winds & dropping the temperature in most of the region to 4-6°C. 
People are advised not to go outside during mid day & stay hydrated enough so you can't get dry, cover your skin from intense solar expose with light wear clothes like silk, use sunscreens to avoid UV Rays etc. Above all stay safe & stay tuned

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Cyclone Remal Killed 25 People across India & Bangladesh, Heavy rains & Adverse Weather likely over Northeast India

May 27th, 2024 -
Cyclone Remal has weakened into a minimal cyclonic storm & is on the verge of becoming a Deep Depression at any moment with its low level circulation becoming partially exposed overland. Although it maintained its cyclone status for nearly a day after its landfall due to the Brown Ocean Effect of the world's largest Delta & low shear conditions, Remal likely to loss its intensity as it's circulation will collapse with the hills of Northeast India & adjoining Meghalaya shortly. The storm caused gale force windy conditions over the large parts of West Bengal & Bangladesh with Gale force winds reaching up to 90-100 Kph in the Capital city Kolkata & coastal areas of Bangladesh like Patuakhali, Chittagong, Khepupara, Hatiya etc. Heavy rainfall of 150 mm nearly recorded at Capital City Kolkata & Dhaka. In South Kolkata Ballygunge recorded nearly 244 mm of extremely heavy rain while in north Bidhannagar recorded 212 mm of extremely heavy rainfall. Highest amount of Rainfall reported from Tarakeshwar of West Bengal with rainfall amount of 300 mm nearly in 6-8 hours. This huge amount of rainfall created water logging situations at most part of the city. In view of Cyclone Remal Kolkata Airport remained off for its record longest period (21 hours) while in Bangladesh Barishal, Chittagong & Cox bazar Airport also remain closed. In Kolkata Exam were also rescheduled at Calcutta, Jadavpur, Presidency University. Metro Railway Service got suspended as the Platform Shade of Kavi Najrul Metro blown away from the cyclone in Kolkata while in similar conditions also suspended Metro Operations at Dhaka. Many EMU trains got cancelled in Southern Kolkata
From Howrah Tamralipta Express got cancelled. Nearly 1 Million people were evacuated in prior of the cyclone from the coast although Storm surge, strong winds, electrocutions, wall collapsing killed nearly 25 People across West Bengal & Bangladesh. 
Most of the fatalities occurred at Khepupara, Patuakhali, Bhola, Chittagong, Cox's Bazar like places in Bangladesh where all total 19 people died & left 27 million people without electricity while destroying 20 thousands houses. In Capital Kolkata 3 people died due to electrocutions, wall collapse like event. In Sovabazar of Kolkata one house also collapsed from heavy rain. The Cyclone also caused Winds of 45-55 Kph in eastern parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha with heavy rains over Odisha too. Conditions likely to improve in Eastern India from tomorrow onwards as the Cyclone will move Northeastwards causing the temperature to increase causing uncomfortable weather for a week or two. 

The Cyclone expected to move northeast & will cause heavy to extremely heavy rain at Northeast India, especially Meghalaya & Southern Assam. Heavy rain reported yesterday too at Meghalaya, Manipur, Assam & Mizoram. Shella reported 172 mm of very heavy rains while gale force winds of 65-75 kph also reported at Hailakandi of Southern Assam & Mawkyrwat of Meghalaya from its feeder band. 

The System will give moderate to heavy rains there through the week causing favorable conditions for the monsoon to approach.

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Severe Cyclone "REMAL" on the verge of making landfall. Significant Damage on its way -


May 26, 2024 -

Current conditions - 
The Severe Cyclone "REMAL" has further intensified into a Severe Cyclone this morning over East Central Bay of Bengal & adjoining Head Bay. The Cyclone is located 20.4° North & 88.9° East at 11:30 AM IST today. The storm is around 275 km South-southeast of Kolkata & 150 Km South of New Moore Island. The Cyclone has moved nearly northwards with 10 km/h & expected to continue this track making landfall near Sundarban core region today late evening. 
The storm has consolidated significantly from yesterday night. The peripheral spiral band has tightly wrapped around the broad low level circulation forming a banding eye feature. The Cyclone is under a highly favourable conditions with very high sea surface temperature of more than 32° Celsius, Low Wind shear of about 5-10 Kt & more than 100 Kj/Cm² tropical cyclone heat potential & other favorable atmospheric & oceanic parameters such as Kelvin & Rossby Wave & MJO. 
Forecast & things likely to occurr - 

The Cyclone will make landfall near or possibly as a hurricane very close to West Bengal - Bangladesh Border. Kolkata, South 24 Pargana are experiencing gale force winds of 65-75 kph from morning & its expected to increase as the day passes by & will become 80-90 Kph at afternoon, while during landfall hours winds expected to remain in order of 100 kph or more than that in Both 24 Parganas, & Twin city Howrah & Kolkata widespreadly with coastal areas touching winds near 120 kph gusting to 145 kph. After making landfall the Cyclone will traverse over the biggest wet land of India - East Calcutta wetland & adjoining Sundarban area which will help the system to a steady weakening process or the cyclone could hold its intensity for a longer period. Extensive damage is very likely over Sundarban delta while adverse weather conditions expected in the entire Gangetic West Bengal, especially the Bangladesh side & coastal area due to gale force winds, heavy to extremely heavy rain & storm surge. The condition will be felt till Monday evening at least as the Cyclone expected to be a very slow moving cyclone as it'll get sandwich between two upper level ridge, one west of it - to Northwest India & Another southeast of it, possibly over Myanmar. 

The Cyclone will then turn Northeast following the typical tracks of pre monsoon cyclone & will reach near Meghalaya across Bangladesh as a weakened tropical cyclone. However due to the elevated topography of that part the area will face stronger winds, possibly even gale force too with torrential rainfall, especially the southern parts of Meghalaya while Mizoram, Tripura will also face similar situation due to its moisture pull from the monsoon over Bay of Bengal. 

Things to do & don't -
We request everyone to get charge your electronic device enough, don't go outside during strong winds & heavy rains, have enough drink, medicine, clothing & food backup, don't open the window or door during strong winds as any sharp material could come out through that. 

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