Monsoon advanced over Eastern India, Further advancement likely over Northern India

Jun 22, 2024 -

After a brief stalling SW Monsoon finally made its onset over Eastern India. The responsible feature for it is the circulation which was over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & the trough it was connected. Both of them came down south a bit, but most importantly both became extremely broad. The first one covering entire Eastern India while the later circulation is still over Northeast India. Both of them tilted Southward & increased there vertical heights too, up to 7.6 km from MSL. this feature has the southern most limit from Chittagong in East to Vidarbh in West as another circulation over Rajasthan also moved south & all this are connected with a well marked trough. This feature led formation of intense thunderstorm activities yesterday over Eastern India forming thunderstorm, severe thunder squall etc. This feature caused isolated heavy rainfall with gale force winds of 65-70 kph in places like Baripada & Nowgong of Odisha & Madhya Pradesh. Nimpith in Gangetic West Bengal recorded 75 mm of heavy rainfall while in Odisha 108 mm of heavy rainfall recorded by Talcher. On 21st the Northern limit of the monsoon passes from Navsari in Gujarat to Raxaul in East through Jalgaon in Maharashtra, Mandla in Madhya Pradesh, Pendra Road in Chhattisgarh, Jharsuguda & Balasore in Odisha, Haldia in Gangetic West Bengal & Pakur & Sahebganj in Jharkhand. In the next few days the northern limit of the southwest monsoon will further approach in some more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, remaining parts of Gangetic West Bengal & Odisha & Gujarat & Parts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh in the next 3-4 days. Monsoon current is expected to go on an active to vigorous phase from the end of this month to the start of next month causing rampage over the foothills of Himalaya. Flood threat looms for the plains of Northern India & Northeast India & Bangladesh. With this the monsoon could catch up its normal line but that's yet to be watched. Stagnant phase of monsoon like this isn't too uncommon but rare. In the last 64 years it occurred only 8 times, with the year like 1960, 1974, 1976, 1997, 1998, 2003, 2009 & 2010 with 2009 saw a quite dramatic as due to Cyclone Aila the monsoon made its earliest arrival over Eastern India in half a century but also remained stagnant for 33 days, nearly a month making the most dormant break of monsoon in half a century. Coincidentally the monsoon made its onset over Kolkata on the same date like previous year, on the day of Summer solstice. The city & its adjoining Bangladesh district recorded isolated light to heavy rainfall with Shyambazar in Kolkata recorded 30 mm of moderate rainfall only. This sudden arrival also killed 3 people in Gangetic West Bengal from lightning as forecasted by us. How the monsoon will act from now is a thing to look for & as such we will keep you updated. 

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