Southwest Monsoon 2025: Current Progress and Comparative Analysis (As of 12 June)
The much-awaited Southwest Monsoon has made significant strides across the Indian subcontinent. As of 12 June 2025, the northern limit of the monsoon (NLM) has advanced into major parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, and northeastern India, including Assam and Meghalaya.
🌧️ Key Observations upto (12 June 2025)
Current NLM: The monsoon has reached central India, currently extending through:
Southern parts of Gujarat
Central Madhya Pradesh
Eastern Uttar Pradesh
Southern Bihar
West Bengal and entire northeast India
Actual Onset Dates show that:
Monsoon arrived slightly early over Kerala (around 22 May) and Andaman & Nicobar Islands (13–14 May), consistent with climatological patterns.
Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, and West Bengal received rains in line or slightly earlier than the normal.
Parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh saw advancement around 5–10 June, almost on par with normal dates.
Normal Onset Dates (Red Lines) suggest that the current monsoon is nearly on schedule in most central and eastern regions, but still lagging in northwest India, where rains are typically expected by 25 June to 8 July.
📈 Comparison with Normal Trends
Region Normal Onset Actual Onset Status
Kerala 1 June ~22 May ✅ Early
Karnataka, Tamil Nadu 1–5 June On Time ✅ Normal
Maharashtra 5–10 June 5–10 June ✅ Normal
Odisha, Chhattisgarh ~10 June On Time ✅ Normal
Eastern UP, Bihar 15–20 June Not Yet ❌ Slight Delay
Delhi, Haryana, Punjab 25 June – 5 July Not Yet ❌ Yet to Advance
⚠️ Implications and Forecast
Agricultural Planning: Timely arrival in central and eastern India is good news for sowing of kharif crops like paddy, pulses, and maize.
Water Reservoirs: Early rains in the southern peninsula will assist reservoir recharge, crucial for drinking and irrigation needs.
Heatwave Relief: Regions still outside monsoon cover—Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab—may continue to experience heatwave conditions till late June.
Monsoon Advance Outlook: The monsoon is likely to continue its gradual northward progress with western and northwestern India expecting its arrival by late June to early July, per normal climatology.
🌀 Conclusion
However, despite this progress, there remains a critical need for close monitoring over the coming 7 to 10 days, particularly in the northern and northwestern parts of the country, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Madhya Pradesh. These regions are still awaiting monsoon rains, and any prolonged delay beyond the normal onset dates (typically between 25 June and 8 July) could affect early sowing windows and soil moisture levels, potentially leading to stressed germination or the need for re-sowing, both of which increase costs and risk for farmers.
In addition, continued high temperatures and dry conditions in these regions may prolong heatwave-like situations, exacerbating water scarcity and power demand, especially in urban and semi-urban centers.
Thus, while the early performance of the monsoon in southern and eastern India is cause for optimism, its full impact on agriculture, water resources, and overall climate relief will depend heavily on its timely progression into north and northwest India over the rest of June and early July.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment