May 21st, 2024 -
Tropical Disturbance Invest 99B has been designated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center this morning. Currently the system is located at Southwest Bay of Bengal with a maximum wind speed of 30 Kph in 1 minute & a central pressure of 998 millibar. Satellite image depicts the system has a broad LLC surrounded by flaring convection to the northwest & southeast periphery. The system is extending up to mid level according to latest synopsis analysis supported by low shear, very warm SST & other oceanic & atmospheric parameters that are highly favorable. Northeast Bay of Bengal registered 3-4°C above normal SST in absence of any system. According to latest model conditions most of them are taking it towards Bangladesh or Myanmar. Interestingly the Gangetic Delta, especially Bangladesh remains most vigilant during this time from late May. The reason behind this is push of Monsoonal surge during this time of the year. The Disturbance formed over rather an unusual area, Southwest Bay of Bengal. System that formed over Southwest Bay of Bengal mostly followed a unusual track which confuses the forecasters. Like 1990 Andhra Pradesh Cyclone made a straight up 90° curve & went towards Andhra Pradesh. In 2019 Cyclone Fani also had a preliminary forecast towards Tamilnadu which later forecasted towards Vizag but ultimately made landfall over Puri. Cyclone Amphan also unexpectedly intensified over the region & followed an unusual track towards West Bengal directly.
Due to favorable conditions the system expected to become a Depression in between 24-36 hours over Central Bay, afterwards its track towards India or Bangladesh or Myanmar isn't clear due to large model divergence as of now. However as a monsoonal system it'll effect over a large area. Under its influence fairly Widespread Rainfall is expected in the northern parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Northern Assam & foothills of Arunachal Pradesh this weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected at coastal parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Extreme NE Odisha coast, Southern states of Northeast India on this weekend. Isolated Extremely heavy rainfall could also occur at NE India. Some areas of Northeast India & Myanmar coast could even see rainfall amounts between 500 to 1000 mm in some areas along with strong winds which could cause localized flash floods or landslide. The cyclone will also sweep the Gangetic Delta coast with high storm surge which will affect the people that lives near Sundarbans along with the animals. In 2009 Cyclone Aila wiped out nearly all of the Sundarban areas of West Bengal in the same time. The system is expected to make its landfall at Sunday night or early next week. We're keeping a close eye over the system & it's characteristics always.
If the system become a cyclone it will be named as Remal, given by Oman according to the latest naming list & will also become the 1st official cyclone over the entire Northern Hemisphere this year like the previous year.
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