May 18th, 2024
Southwest monsoon is the main driver of the lifestyle of the hundreds of thousands residence across India & Southern Asia. Every year all the people eagerly awaits for the onset of monsoon as it plays a vital roles on them. The monsoon enters the Indian land mass into two brunch due to the position of Decan Peninsula - Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea. Although the Bay of Bengal brunch mark its footsteps first over India by touching the Andaman & Nicobar Islands the actual onset of Southwest monsoon is considered when the Arabian sea brunch actually touches the southern tip of India; the main Indian Landmass. During the onset Southwest monsoon remains very active with large & deep convective thunderstorm cells along its NLM causing intense showers & the region they touch first is also hilly, deteriorating the situation further. Usually the onset of monsoon is generally get supported by a Monsoonal vortex or Tropical Disturbance forming in the northern side of it which activate the surge & pull it north. During El Nino years accompanied by Positive IOD events or Neutral conditions monsoon the environment conditions triggers the surge further even without a presence of a system like it occurred in 2020.
This year also due to extremely favorable conditions the Southwest monsoon has made its onset over Maldives on May 10th, few days before its normal onset & as such its also expected to mark its step earlier then normal onset. The Southwest monsoon is expected to mark its step over Nicobar islands by tomorrow & in Kerala by 31st May. Coincidentally Southwest monsoon also made its onset over Nicobar islands on the same date previous year; however it would be the earliest approach in Kerala, Main Indian landmass since 2018, nearly half a decade.
The Southwest monsoon is in pretty strong stage currently causing 45-55 Kph wind speed over Maldives & the similar conditions is expected to cover up Andaman when it'll mark its onset there.
Also its approach will be followed by a Tropical Disturbance development over central Bay of Bengal which would deteriorate the conditions further & could cause heavy to extremely heavy rainfall at isolated parts of Greater Andaman Islands around May 24th to 25th untill the system organize into a Depression or higher. A example of that is, in 1961 a Cyclone caused 310 mm of extremely heavy rain over Port Blair during its formation from the monsoonal vortex. This conditions could lead up to a serious situation with flash flooding conditions, widespread black out, water logging at low lying areas, specifically in Port Blair, disrupting transport & communication services for several days. Similar things expected over the Malabar coast too. The onset also limits fishing activities along the coast due to squally winds, rough sea conditions & intense rain where the NLM approaches. People should be careful during this time & follow the weather updates regularly.
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